Monday, November 17, 2008

The understatement of the 21st Century: No "garden variety" recession

THE QUESTION: Recession or Depression?

Comment: Instead of asking capitalist sooth-Sayers and economic forecasters if this is a depression or a recession, maybe the mainstream media should be asking unemployed workers, those living in poverty and working class families facing foreclosures and evictions for the answer to this question.

The real question is:
Why did Barack Obama and the Democrats join Republicans in telling lies about the real state of the economy throughout most of the campaign until everything came tumbling down?


Forecasters: tough road ahead for the economy

http://apnews.myway.com//article/20081117/D94GM8G00.html

Nov 17, 7:27 AM (ET)

By JEANNINE AVERSA

WASHINGTON (AP) - The country is sinking deeper into the economic doldrums, and it's likely to stay there for a while.

That's part of the latest outlook from forecasters in a survey to be released Monday by the National Association for Business Economics, also known by its acronym, NABE.

Approximately 96 percent of the economists polled believe that a recession has started, and nearly three-fourths think it could persist beyond the first quarter of 2009.

Under one definition, a recession happens when the economy shrinks for two quarters in a row. The economy contracted 0.3 percent in the third quarter as battered consumers cut back sharply on spending, the government reported last month. It was the worst showing since 2001, when the country was last in a recession.

NABE economists, among other experts, predict activity will continue to shrink in both the final quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year as weary consumers hunker down further under the stresses of rising unemployment, shrinking nest eggs and falling home values.

"Business economists became decidedly more negative on the economic outlook for the next several quarters as a result of the intensification of credit market stresses and evidence of spillover to the real economy," said NABE president Chris Varvares, president of Macroeconomic Advisers.

NABE economists are now forecasting the economy to shrink at a 2.6 percent pace in the final quarter of this year and then at a 1.3 percent pace in the first three months of 2009. The new projections marked downgrades from the association's previous survey, which called for growth of just 0.1 percent in the final quarter of this year and a 1.3 percent growth rate in the following quarter.

For all of 2008, the association's economists are predicting the economy's growth will slow to 1.4 percent, down from 2 percent in 2007. If the new, lower projection proves correct, it would mark the weakest performance since the 2001.

The picture would turn worse in 2009. The NABE economists are projecting the economy will jolt into reverse, shrinking by 0.2 percent for all of next year. If that happens, it would mark the worst showing since 1991, when the country was starting to pull out of a recession.

With the economy losing traction, the nation's unemployment rate will climb to 7.5 percent by the end of next year, the economists predict. Other analysts think it could rise to 8 percent at that time, or even hit 10 percent or higher if a U.S. auto company were to go under.

The nation's unemployment rate bolted to 6.5 percent in October, a 14-year high, the government reported earlier this month.

To cushion the fallout, the Federal Reserve has slashed a key interest rate, dropping it to just 1 percent, a level seen only once before in the last half-century.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has warned that the country's economic weakness could last for some time - even if the government's unprecedented $700 billion financial bailout package and other steps do succeed in getting financial and credit markets to operate more normally.

In a speech Friday, Bernanke left the door open to another rate reduction, warning that financial markets remain under "severe strain."

Wall Street investors and economists believe the Fed probably will lower interest rates again on Dec. 16, its last regularly scheduled meeting this year, by one-quarter or even one-half percentage point.

The NABE survey of 50 forecasters was taken Oct. 28 through Nov. 7.

The raft of grim economic news prompted Sandra Pianalto, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, to say in a speech Friday that the data to date "tells me that the economy is now in a recession."

"At the moment, the signs point to a recession beyond just a 'garden variety' downturn," she said. "The length and severity of the recession will depend on how quickly credit markets return to normal."

Sunday, November 16, 2008

Depression Economics Returns

A question: Based on your own circumstances do you think Krugman is correct in assuming there will be no replay of the Great Depression?

November 14, 2008

Op-Ed Columnist

Depression Economics Returns

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/14/opinion/14krugman.html?_r=1&oref=slogin&pagewanted=print

By PAUL KRUGMAN

The economic news, in case you haven’t noticed, keeps getting worse. Bad as it is, however, I don’t expect another Great Depression. In fact, we probably won’t see the unemployment rate match its post-Depression peak of 10.7 percent, reached in 1982 (although I wish I was sure about that).

We are already, however, well into the realm of what I call depression economics. By that I mean a state of affairs like that of the 1930s in which the usual tools of economic policy — above all, the Federal Reserve’s ability to pump up the economy by cutting interest rates — have lost all traction. When depression economics prevails, the usual rules of economic policy no longer apply: virtue becomes vice, caution is risky and prudence is folly.

To see what I’m talking about, consider the implications of the latest piece of terrible economic news: Thursday’s report on new claims for unemployment insurance, which have now passed the half-million mark. Bad as this report was, viewed in isolation it might not seem catastrophic. After all, it was in the same ballpark as numbers reached during the 2001 recession and the 1990-1991 recession, both of which ended up being relatively mild by historical standards (although in each case it took a long time before the job market recovered).

But on both of these earlier occasions the standard policy response to a weak economy — a cut in the federal funds rate, the interest rate most directly affected by Fed policy — was still available. Today, it isn’t: the effective federal funds rate (as opposed to the official target, which for technical reasons has become meaningless) has averaged less than 0.3 percent in recent days. Basically, there’s nothing left to cut.

And with no possibility of further interest rate cuts, there’s nothing to stop the economy’s downward momentum. Rising unemployment will lead to further cuts in consumer spending, which Best Buy warned this week has already suffered a “seismic” decline. Weak consumer spending will lead to cutbacks in business investment plans. And the weakening economy will lead to more job cuts, provoking a further cycle of contraction.

To pull us out of this downward spiral, the federal government will have to provide economic stimulus in the form of higher spending and greater aid to those in distress — and the stimulus plan won’t come soon enough or be strong enough unless politicians and economic officials are able to transcend several conventional prejudices.

One of these prejudices is the fear of red ink. In normal times, it’s good to worry about the budget deficit — and fiscal responsibility is a virtue we’ll need to relearn as soon as this crisis is past. When depression economics prevails, however, this virtue becomes a vice. F.D.R.’s premature attempt to balance the budget in 1937 almost destroyed the New Deal.

Another prejudice is the belief that policy should move cautiously. In normal times, this makes sense: you shouldn’t make big changes in policy until it’s clear they’re needed. Under current conditions, however, caution is risky, because big changes for the worse are already happening, and any delay in acting raises the chance of a deeper economic disaster. The policy response should be as well-crafted as possible, but time is of the essence.

Finally, in normal times modesty and prudence in policy goals are good things. Under current conditions, however, it’s much better to err on the side of doing too much than on the side of doing too little. The risk, if the stimulus plan turns out to be more than needed, is that the economy might overheat, leading to inflation — but the Federal Reserve can always head off that threat by raising interest rates. On the other hand, if the stimulus plan is too small there’s nothing the Fed can do to make up for the shortfall. So when depression economics prevails, prudence is folly.

What does all this say about economic policy in the near future? The Obama administration will almost certainly take office in the face of an economy looking even worse than it does now. Indeed, Goldman Sachs predicts that the unemployment rate, currently at 6.5 percent, will reach 8.5 percent by the end of next year.

All indications are that the new administration will offer a major stimulus package. My own back-of-the-envelope calculations say that the package should be huge, on the order of $600 billion.

So the question becomes, will the Obama people dare to propose something on that scale?

Let’s hope that the answer to that question is yes, that the new administration will indeed be that daring. For we’re now in a situation where it would be very dangerous to give in to conventional notions of prudence.

Friday, November 14, 2008

INTERNATIONAL TRADE UNION CONFEDERATION (ITUC)

ITUC OnLine
192/131108

Economic Crisis: World's Trade Unions Put Recovery and Reform Plan to
G20

Brussels, 13 November (ITUC OnLine): Trade union leaders from the G20
countries will put forward a comprehensive plan to turn around the
global economy, in meetings with world leaders in Washington DC on the
eve of the financial crisis summit hosted by the US government on 15
November. The top level union delegation will discuss the plan with
IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn, World Bank President
Robert Zoellick and heads of government from the G20 countries.

The world's unions are calling for a series of urgent actions to stave
off the prospect of deep and long-lasting global recession, coupled with
major changes in the running of the global economy to turn back decades
of deregulation policies that have caused the current crisis. A fresh
push for development and decent work is needed, as well as a "Green New
Deal" to tackle climate change effectively. The detailed union
proposals are set out in a recovery and reform programme entitled the
"Washington Declaration"
http://www.ituc-csi.org/IMG/pdf/0811t_gf_G20.pdf

"Immediate action is needed to get the world economy moving and boost
employment. Governments need to be prepared to make further,
coordinated, cuts in interest rates and to front-load investment in
infrastructure, education and health to help stimulate demand growth and
reinforce public services. This needs to be accompanied by tax and
spending measures to support the purchasing power of low- and
middle-income earners, and concrete steps to launch investment in green
goods and services, to help address climate change", said John Evans,
General Secretary of the OECD-TUAC.
The ITUC and TUAC are co-organising the union summit which will be
hosted by the US trade union centre AFL-CIO at its Washington DC
Headquarters.

"The outcome of the US elections reflects a world-wide rejection of the
fundamentalist right-wing ideology that has made a small number of
people incredibly rich, while inequality and economic insecurity have
grown, development has stalled, and the world stands on the edge of
economic calamity. Tens of millions of workers are facing the loss of
their jobs and more and more people are falling into poverty, with women
frequently the worst affected" said ITUC General Secretary Guy Ryder.
"Now is the time for a complete change in direction, and we will be
putting the case for that change to governments, including the incoming
Obama Administration in the USA", he added.

Along with the immediate steps to stimulate the world economy, the trade
unions are putting forward a comprehensive regulatory package to ensure
global governance of the global economy with a strong role for the ILO
in line with the new ILO Social Justice Declaration. Key elements of
the package include:

* Better accountability of central banks
1 Regulation of hedge funds and private
equity
2 Proper supervision of banks and global
conglomerates
3 Reform and control of executive pay and
profit distribution
4 Taxation of international financial
transactions
5 Reform of the credit rating industry
6 Ending tax havens
7 Protection against predatory lending
8 Active policies for housing and for
community-based financial services.

The Washington Declaration also draws attention to the plight of the
world's poorest countries, where the impacts of global downturn will hit
hardest. It calls on richer countries to ensure that international
targets on development aid and the UN Millennium Development Goals are
met, and urges action to ensure that basic commodities, especially food,
become affordable for the poorest.
The Declaration sets out the global trade union movement's platform for
a new governance structure for the world economy. This must not be
limited only to financial markets and currency flows. The new structure
must overcome the major flaws in the current system, and ensure that
emerging economies and developing countries have their rightful place at
the centre of policy-making.

Decent Work must be a primary objective of the new approach, with job
creation, fundamental workers' rights, social protection and social
dialogue central to reversing the massive inequality which is at the
root of the present crisis. Trade unions have a major contribution to
make in charting the necessary international reform, and the statement
calls on governments to ensure their full involvement in the process.
"Governments have found it easy for the past three decades to withdraw
from their proper role in regulating markets and ensuring that
multinational companies meet global standards on workers' rights.
Getting good government policies back in the driving seat will be much
more difficult, as no government can achieve this alone. Now is the
time for coordinated action to restore proper regulation to put the
markets at the service of the people," said Ryder.


The ITUC represents 168 million workers in 155 countries and territories
and has 311 national affiliates. http://www.ituc-csi.org
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For more information, please contact the ITUC Press Department on the
following numbers: +32 2 224 0204 or +32 476 621 018.